Cai Xin (財新網) – Who is buying gold? Behind the surge of gold inflow to the mainland in Hong Kong

Cai Xin (財新網), Monday, 10 May 2021 – Who is buying gold? Behind the surge of gold inflow to the mainland in Hong Kong

Joshua Rotbart, managing partner of precious metals service provider J. Rotbart & Co, also said in an interview with Caixin that the surge in net gold inflow figures from Hong Kong to the mainland in March may be due to strong demand for gold in China, both as jewelry and investment, amid the economic recovery. He said that usually when the economy turns around, people’s demand to buy gold for jewelry will rise, so now we can see jewelry demand growing as China’s economy recovers. At the same time, as the economy recovers, concerns about possible inflationary pressures and debt expansion make gold still an important safe-haven option from an investment perspective.

In addition, Joshua Rotbart believes that the active Hong Kong channel may be due to the previous backlog of gold stocks in Hong Kong due to the epidemic, which are now able to be shipped to the mainland as mainland demand recovers. On the other hand, it may stem from the gradual stabilization of the political environment in Hong Kong. During the 2019 social movement period, the mainland’s gold import figures from Hong Kong had dropped significantly, at which time the mainland turned to Australia and Switzerland. Direct imports to China, and now net gold inflows, are growing, perhaps showing the central government’s confidence in the stability of Hong Kong, which is regaining its status as an important gold import hub. 

On top of that, Joshua Rotbart added that gold prices are still low and it is a good time for Chinese investors to buy a lot of gold. Gold prices fell from the beginning of the year to the end of March due to higher U.S. 10-year Treasury yields and expectations of tighter liquidity.

[In Chinese]

贵金属服务商 J.Rotbart & Co. 的管理合伙人Joshua Rotbart接受财新记者采访时亦表示，3月香港向内地的黄金净流入量数据激增可能是因为在经济复苏背景下，黄金无论作为珠宝还是投资，中国的需求都十分强劲。他表示，通常在经济转好时，人们购买黄金用于珠宝的需求会上升，因此现在可以看到珠宝需求随着中国经济复苏在增长。同时由于经济复苏，对于可能出现的通胀压力和债务扩张问题的忧虑，使得从投资角度来看，黄金也仍是重要的避险选择。 

此外，Joshua Rotbart 认为，香港渠道的活跃，一方面可能是此前因疫情在香港积压了黄金存货，随着内地需求恢复现在得以运往内地，另一方面可能源于香港政治环境的逐渐稳定。2019年社会运动期间，内地自香港进口的黄金数据曾明显下降，内地转而向澳大利亚、瑞士直接进口，如今黄金净流入增长，或许显示出中央政府对于香港稳定性的信心，香港正在恢复重要黄金进口枢纽的地位。 

除此之外，Joshua Rotbart 补充称，目前金价仍处低位，对于中国投资者来说，也是个大量购入黄金的好时机。受美国10年期国债收益率升高以及流动性收紧预期增强等影响，年初至3月末金价一路下跌。