Oriental Daily (東方日報) – Silver prices expected to rise by 20% this year

Oriental Daily (東方日報), Monday, 17 May 2021 – Silver prices expected to rise by 20% this year

The coronavirus pandemic has raged around the world for nearly a year and a half and has not subsided. Central banks in various nations have to “release water” to support the economy, and an inflation storm has struck. Joshua Rotbart, managing partner of J. Rotbart & Co., a precious metals service provider, said that among the precious metals, silver is the most promising one, because its value is far underestimated and is expected to rise by another 20% this year from the current price of $33 per ounce. Gold prices are even more likely to rise above historical highs reached last year.

Even though the price of silver has soared by more than 47% last year, Joshua Rotbart said in an interview with Oriental Daily that the price is still more than 40% lower than the historical high. “I believe there is still room for growth in silver. As the market expects that widespread vaccinations will drive economic recovery, silver will benefit from increased industrial demand. In addition, the social media Reddit’s army of retail investors switched to silver (Silver squeeze) has set off a wave of speculation in silver. Compared with gold, which aims to preserve capital, silver has more room for speculation.”

Gold prices may break the 2100 threshold in the final quarter

He pointed out that about 30% of his clients tend to invest in at least two precious metals, although the portfolio often changes. In the past two months there has clearly been more demand for silver. In addition, silver is cheaper than gold and has become popular with the younger generation in recent years.

The spot gold price closed at US$1,843.1 per ounce on Friday, down more than 10% from last year’s record high, as risk aversion has cooled due to the vaccination campaigns that started this year. However, Rotbart is still optimistic about gold, saying that gold prices have not yet peaked and are expected to rise as high as $2,100 by the end of this year, which is about 10% higher than last year.

He explained that people are aware that 2021 is likely to be “wiped out” by the coronavirus, whether in tourism, aviation, real estate or transportation, although it is possible to return to pre-epidemic levels this year. Even though the U.S. economy is starting to show signs of recovery, emerging markets such as Europe, India and the Philippines are still troubled by the pandemic. At the same time, governments around the world keep printing banknotes to protect the economy and suppress interest rates, resulting in rising inflation. These “fear factors” are going to lift up gold’s price up.

It is worth noting that the World Gold Council (WGC) data shows that the first quarter recorded 117.9 tons or US$9.5 billion of outflows from gold’s exchange traded funds (ETFs), but physical gold investments came in at 339.5 tons, a single quarter high since the end of 2016. He believes this reflects the fact that demand for physical gold remains rigid, adding that clients are more interested in investing in physical gold. Rotbart said the company’s gold trading in the first four months of the year alone was equivalent to last year’s total volume, without disclosing the actual amount.

The increase in physical gold trading is not unique to Asia or Hong Kong, Rotbart said. People only believe in directly owned physical assets – “everyone is afraid that if there is a problem with the integrity of the financial system, a repetition of the 2008 Lehman Brothers ‘explosion’ of the U.S. investment bank, financial assets may lose everything.”

Platinum supply is not enough to meet the strong demand

As for palladium and platinum, two other precious metals, he said that demand for platinum has been stable, but the shortage of supply has led to an imbalance between supply and demand, and it is believed that this year the price may rise as high as $1,350 per ounce. Demand for palladium, which is used in the manufacture of electric car batteries and solar panels, is expected to continue to rise, thanks to the promotion of clean energy policies in China and the U.S., driving palladium to US$3,100 per ounce over the year.

[In Chinese]

新冠肺炎肆虐全球近一年半仍未消退，各地央行只好加緊「放水」撐經濟，一場通脹風暴儼然來襲。貴金屬服務商J.Rotbart & Co.管理合夥人Joshua Rotbart表示，一眾貴金屬中，最看好白銀，因為價值遠被低估，更放言今年有望從現價再升20%，每安士或高見33美元；現貨金價更有望重返甚至升穿去年歷史高位。

即使銀價去年已狂飆逾47%，Joshua Rotbart接受本報專訪時表示，價格仍較歷史高位低逾四成，相信白銀仍有增長空間。由於市場憧憬疫苗廣泛接種後會帶動經濟復甦，白銀會受惠工業需求增加，加上社交網站Reddit散戶大軍轉戰白銀(Silver squeeze)更掀起炒銀潮。相對於以保本為目標的黃金，白銀更具炒作空間。

他指，旗下有約30%客戶傾向投資至少兩種貴金屬，雖然組合經常更換，但過去兩個月白銀明顯有更多的需求。此外，白銀較黃金便宜，近年備受年輕一族喜愛。

由於今年起各國陸續展開疫苗接種活動，避險情緒有所降溫，現貨黃金價格上周五收報每安士1,843.1美元，較去年創下之歷史新高插逾10%。不過，Rotbart對於黃金前景仍感到樂觀，直言金價仍未見頂，並預料在今年末季或升穿每安士2,000美元大關，高見2,100美元，相當於較去年再升約10%。

他解釋，大家意識到2021年很可能再被新冠肺炎「抹走」，不論旅遊、航空、地產或者運輸業等，今年都不可能重返疫前。即使美國經濟數據開始見起色，歐洲、印度及菲律賓等新興市場仍受疫情困擾，防疫情況猶如「進兩步，退一步」，無不牽動投資者神經。與此同時，各地政府不斷印銀紙保經濟，並壓低利率，以至通脹不斷上升，這些「恐懼因素」將推升黃金價格。

值得留意的是，世界黃金協會(WGC)數據顯示，首季錄得117.9噸或95億美元自黃金的交易所買賣基金(ETF)流出，但實體黃金投資進帳339.5噸，創2016年末季以來單季新高。他相信，此反映實金需求仍然硬淨，更指客戶對投資實體黃金的興趣增加，單是公司今年首4個月的黃金交易，已相當於去年的分量，但無透露實際金額。

實金買賣增加的情況並非亞洲或香港獨有，Rotbart表示，是因為大家只相信直接擁有的實物資產，「大家都害怕，如果金融體系的完整性存在問題，重演一次2008年美國投資銀行雷曼兄弟『爆煲』的事件，金融資產可能輸得一乾二淨」。

至於貴金屬成員之一的鈀金及鉑金，他指，鉑金需求向來穩定，但供應短缺以致供需失衡，相信年內或高見每安士1,350美元。而用於製造電動車電池及太陽能板的鈀金，受惠於中美兩國推動清潔能源的政策，需求可望繼續增加，帶動鈀金年內或升至每安士3,100美元。

The story has been republished in:

Line Today – https://today.line.me/hk/v2/article/me38Jr

Money 18 – https://money18.on.cc/finnews/content/exp/bkn-20210517002823065-0517_00842_001.html